人民币境外存量对我国货币供应量的影响研究

Influence of Overseas RMB Stock on Domestic Money Supply

本文运用缺口估计法间接估算了2006年第一季度至2014年第三季度的人民币境外存量,并且利用状态空间模型论证了当前人民币境外存量对国内货币供应量的影响并不显著。通过对比1961-2005年欧洲美元对美国货币供应量的影响,得知未来人民币境外存量对我国货币供应量的影响势必逐步增强,进而威胁国内货币供应量的稳定性。从货币回流机制的角度分析了人民币与美元现实差异的根源,本文提出完善人民币回流机制的政策建议。

The paper estimates overseas RMB stock by calculating the money demand gap from the first quarter of 2006 to the third quarter of 2014. Accordingly, the state space modal is used to prove that its impact on the domestic money supply is not significant at the present stage. By comparing the impact of Eurodollar on the USA money supply from 1961 to 2005, the paper suggests that the impact of overseas RMB stock will be gradually evident in the future, which will threaten the stability of the domestic money supply. Based on the perspective of currency reflow, the paper analyzes the reasons behind the difference between RMB and USD and offers recommendations.