财政分权、金融分权与地方政府债务增长

Fiscal Decentralization, Financial Decentralization and the Growth of Local Debt

本文基于"财政—金融关联"的视角分析财政与金融分权制度安排与地方债务增长的关系。在梳理我国财政与金融分权演变历程与主要特征基础上,分析提出财政与金融分权对地方债务增长作用机理与假说,运用测算得到的各省地方债务数据,建立30个省份2005-2014年的面板数据验证了财政、金融分权与地方债务增长的关系,研究结论为:财政分权与金融隐性分权都促进了地方债务增长,后者还增强了前者对地方债务增长的正向作用;金融显性集权可以抑制地方债务增长,但并未削弱财政分权对地方债务增长的正向作用,分权的隐性化特征是造成地方债务增长的重要原因。未来的分权制度要实现规范化、合理化,处理好财政预算内与预算外分权、金融集权与隐性分权的关系。

This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal decentralization and financial decentralization on local debt growth from the perspective of fiscal-financial linkage. On the basis of combing the evolution of fiscal and financial decentralization in China and summarizing the main features of each stage, this paper elaborates the mechanism and hypotheses of fiscal decentralization, financial decentralization and the growth of local debt by using panel data of 30 provinces from 2005 to 2014. The conclusions are as follows： both fiscal decentralization and financial implicit decentralization promote local debt growth, and the latter also enhances the positive effect of the former; financial dominant centralization can restrain local debt growth, but does not weaken the positive effect of fiscal decentralization on local debt growth because of its implicit feature. In future the decentralization system should be standardized and rationalized to deal with the relationship between budgetary and extra-budgetary decentralization, financial centralization and implicit decentralization.