中国山洪预警研究综述

A Review of the Study on Flash Flood Early Warning in China

山洪是难以依靠工程措施完全根除的自然灾害,近几十年在全球范围内造成了严重的人员伤亡和财产损失。预警作为可以有效减少山洪灾害造成损失的非工程措施手段,吸引了各国学者的密切关注。欧美发达国家基于Flash Flood Guidance(FFG)和European Precipitation Index based on simulated Climatology(EPIC)等方法开展了大量的山洪预警实践,成效显著。中国山区面积大、居住人口多,且地形地貌复杂,极易遭受山洪灾害侵袭。从20世纪90年代起,中国学者在欧美山洪预警经验的基础上,开始探索针对中国山洪灾情的预警研究。对国内山洪预警研究取得的成果进行了系统回顾,梳理出其研究体系框架,包括基于统计规律和致灾机理的山洪长期预警、临期预警指标计算方法、多源数据在山洪临期预警中的利用、山洪临期预警信息化建设等方面。同时也指出了当前研究中存在的问题与未来的研究方向。

In recent years, flash floods rank very high in the list of natural disasters for the whole world. As a usefull method of flash flood disaster control, early warning attracts global attention. Based on Flash Flood Guidance（ FFG） and European Precipitation Index based on simulated Climatology（ EPIC）, European and American countries do lots of practice of flash flood early warning（ FFEW）.Since about 67% of the terrestrial part of the whole country are mountain area with many residents, China has suffered from flash floods disaster throughout its history especially. For getting more accurate early warning of flash floods to prevent and decrease this disaster,Chinese water scientists and practicers constantly endeavor in exploring FFEW since 1990 s. This paper provides a systematic review of the study on FFEW in China and classifies those researches into flash flood long-term warning and real-time warning. While statistical regularity and disaster-causing mechanism are the basis for long-term warning, research on real-time warning is closely associated with indicator system research, multi-sources data using research and information construction research. This paper also points out the difficulties in FFEW, and suggests some significant interests in future study.