基于土坝质量与寿命下向失稳分析的AHP-概率评价方法

The AHP-probability Evaluation Method Based on the Instability Oriented for the Dam Quality and Life

基于土坝稳定性分析中安全系数法未考虑随机事件发生的问题,提出一种针对层次模型的AHP-概率分析方法,并将该方法适用到了土坝失稳分析上,建立一种基于失稳导向的质量与寿命下向分析的土坝稳定性的AHP-概率可靠性评价方法,并以一计算实例进行了计算,得到了其质量变差、寿命变短的概率结果,同时印证了事件发生概率不断增大,可靠性不断衰减的结论。因此,必须重视最下层的基础事件的防护,才能保证土坝的质量与寿命。

The safety coefficient method of dam stability analysis have not consider random events, an analysis method based on hierarchical model AHP-probability was put forward, and this method is applicable to the dam instability analysis. Based on The AHP-probability evaluation method about the instability oriented for the dam quality and life,a calculation example is calculated, the probability result of the poor quality is calculated, and the shorter life expectancy also confirms the occurrence probability of increasing reliability, declining the conclusion, therefore, must pay attention to protecting the lower base event, in order to ensure the quality and life of the earth.