不同农业政策对中国农户粮食生产决策影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study on Impact of Agricultural Policies on Chinese Farmers' Grain Planting Decision-making

基于Nerlove模型,利用1994~2014年中国25个省际粮食生产面板数据,实证分析财政支农政策、农业结构调整政策、农业税政策、粮食价格及其他因素对粮食播种面积和单产的影响效果。结果表明,1994年以来,农业政策调整可以调动农户种粮积极性时,农户会通过扩大粮食播种面积或提高单产实现粮食增产;农业政策调整未能进一步调动农户种粮积极性时,粮食增产乏力。不同阶段影响农户粮食生产决策的农业政策存在显著差异,当前乃至未来一段时期,粮食价格和财政支农政策是影响农户粮食生产决策重要因素。政府应进一步完善粮食价格形成机制、创新粮食市场调控体系、健全农业投入持续增长机制、优化财政支农支出结构等,切实有效提高农户种粮积极性。

Based on the Nerlove model, the effect of the financial supporting agriculture policy, agricultural structuring, agricultural tax policy, grain price and other factors on the grain acreage and yield were analyzed, through using 25 provinces＇ grain production panel data in China during 1994-2014. The results showed that when the agricultural policy adjustment could stimulate farmers＇ initiative, farmers would expand the grain acreage or improve the grain yield to increase grain production, while agricultural policy adjustment could not further stimulate farmers＇ enthusiasm for growing grain, and grain production was weak since 1994; impact of agricultural policies and various factors on farmers＇ planting decision-making were different; grain price and the financial supporting agriculture policy were more important factors to influence the current farmers＇ grain planting decision-making Government should further perfect the grain price formation mechanism, innovate grain system, improve the agricultural investment growth mechanism and optimize the in the long-term. market regulation fiscal expenditure structure, effectively stabilizing and improving farmers＇ enthusiasm for growing grain.