利用高分辨率气候模式对湖北未来气候变化的模拟与预估

SIMULATION AND PROJECTION OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IN HUBEI PROVINCE USING HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL

利用高分辨率区域气候模式CCLM对湖北省降水和气温的模拟数据,对比分析了基准期(1961~2005年)的模拟结果和同期CN05.1的观测数据,并对RCP4.5情景下的未来(2006~2050年)气候进行了年尺度和季节尺度的预估。结果表明:(1)CCLM区域气候模式较好地模拟了湖北气温的演变趋势及其空间分布格局,对降水的时空波动模拟与同期CN05.1在降水时空变化上的匹配度较弱;(2)RCP4.5情景下,2006~2050年湖北T、T_(min)、T_(max)呈上升趋势。四季气温呈一致上升的趋势,冬季的上升速度最快,对年尺度上T、T_(min)、T_(max)上升的趋势贡献最大。(3)RCP4.5情景下,2006~2050年湖北T、T_(min)、T_(max)呈全区一致上升的格局。其中增幅最大的区域均集中于汉江湖北段北部。春季T、T_(min)、T_(max)增温大值区位于西北山地区;夏季中部平原区T、T_(min)、T_(max)相较于其他区域增幅较大;秋季西南山地区T和T_(max)较其他区域增温较高,T_(min)的增温大值区位于汉江湖北段北部;冬季鄂东南丘陵T相较于其他区域增幅较大,汉江湖北段北部T_(min)增温较大,西南山地T_(max)增温较大。

Based on the comparative analysis between the simulation data from the high-resolution regional climate model （CCLM） and the CN05.1 data based on the observation in the reference period （1961–2005）, we conducted projections on future climate change under the scenario of RCP4.5 at both annual and seasonal scales for the Hubei Province. The results showed：（1）CCLM presented a satisfactory simulation performance on the changing trend of temperature and its spatial distribution pattern, but was not matched very well with the CN05.1 observation precipitation data. （2）Under the RCP4.5, from 2006 to 2050, T, Tmin and Tmax in Hubei Province show a rising trend. The temperature is projected to be rising in all four seasons, while the winter has the fastest increase and the greatest contribution to the rise of annual T, Tmin as well as Tmax. （3）Under the RCP4.5, in the period of 2006–2050, T, Tmin and Tmax will increase in the whole region compared to the reference period. The region with the high increase of temperature is located in the northern part of Hubei section of Han River. In spring, the regions with high increase of temperature are located in northwestern mountain area. In summer, the increase of T, Tmin and Tmax in the middle plain region is higher than other regions. In fall, the increase of T and Tmax in southwestern mountain region is higher than that in other regions. The regions with high increase of Tmin are located in the northern part of Hubei section of Han River. In winter, the increase of T in hilly regions of southeastern Hubei is higher than that in other regions, the same for the Tmin in north part of north section of Han River and Tmax in southwestern mountain region.