基于多代理技术的电动汽车规模演化模型

Multi-Agent Modeling for The Scale Evolution of Plug-in Electric Vehicles

跨时间尺度的电动汽车充电需求分析是研究电动汽车规模化接入对电网的影响以及指导充换电基础设施规划建设的基础,而电动汽车规模演化是驱动充电需求动态发展的内在因素,是量化不同发展阶段下充电需求的基本前提。首先分析了影响电动汽车规模演化的相关因素,比较了各种新产品扩散模型的特点;其次,基于消费者行为学理论构建电动汽车规模演化多代理模型,并提出综合考虑年拥有成本、技术成熟度、社会效用、环保效用以及充电方便程度的用户购车概率选择模型,从微观个体的角度出发研究电动汽车的规模演化趋势,不仅考虑了用户购车行为的异质性,也体现了相关群体用户决策之间的交互影响;最后,算例仿真验证了所提模型的有效性,通过设置不同场景推演了电动汽车的规模发展趋势,并分析了不同因素对电动汽车规模演化的影响。

Multi-scale modeling of charging demand is basis for impact analysis due to integration of plug-in electric vehicles（PEVs） and guidance for planning and construction of charging service network. Charging demand is determined by PEV number, driving patterns, charging behaviors, and battery parameters. Besides, PEV scale evolution is driving force for charging demand. Firstly, factors influencing PEV consumers are analyzed systematically and various innovation diffusion models are compared. Secondly, based on theory of consumer behavior, PEV market evolution model is developed by modeling each consumer as distinct intelligent agent able to interact with each other to simulate consumers＇ vehicle purchase behavior each year. Case study demonstrates feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed methodology, providing guidance for construction of charging service network and planning of distribution network. Factors affecting PEV market evolution are also analyzed.