负面核学习与印巴核不稳定

“Negative” Learning and Nuclear Power:Nuclear Instability between India and Pakistan

核学习理论曾被用以解释两个拥有核武器的国家间战略稳定关系的形成,然而作为社会科学的"学习"概念并不内含价值规范性,它可以是正面的也可以是负面的。印度和巴基斯坦1998年进行核试验后,在卡吉尔冲突和2001~2002年军事对峙中经历了负面核学习过程,认为各自的冒险政策取得了胜利。负面核学习的结果是印度继续扩大常规优势和建立"三位一体"核力量,巴基斯坦则发展战术核武器并降低核使用门槛。印巴为升级优势展开的争夺,导致双方核军备升级,破坏了两国的战略稳定,增大了发生核冲突的风险。

International relations theory has proposed that possession of nuclear weapons by two states generates strategic stability between them,yet as a social science theory,this concept is agnostic with respect to normative values.Following the nuclear tests by India and Pakistan in 1998,in the Kargil Conflict and the 2001-2002 military standoff between the two states,a process of negative learning occurred,with both sides feeling that their policies of brinkmanship resulted in victory.The end result of negative learning vis-à-vis nuclear power is that India has continued to enhance its conventional military strength,while also establishing a nuclear triad.Pakistan has also developed tactical nuclear weapons,while also decreasing its threshold vis-à-vis the use of nuclear weapons.The contest between India and Pakistan over escalation dominance has resulted in both sides upgrading their nuclear stockpiles,and damaged the strategic stability between the two states,increasing the dangers of a nuclear conflict.