吉林省居民生活消费的间接碳排放特征及影响因素

Characteristics of Indirect Carbon Emissions and Influence Factors of Residents' Living Expenditure in Jilin Province

[目的]核算吉林省居民家庭生活消费的间接能源消耗量和碳排放量,并分析其影响因素,为政府引导居民实施低碳消费、改善区域环境质量提供决策参考。[方法]以吉林省为例,计算2004—2013年居民各类消费活动所产生的能源消耗量及碳排放量,采用STIRPAT模型,分析居民消费碳排放的影响因素。[结果](1)"居住"、"文化教育娱乐"和"食物"3类消费是间接能源消耗和碳排放的最主要来源;(2)碳排强度、人均消费支出、人口数量和城市化率每增加1%,吉林省居民生活消费间接能耗的碳排放分别增加0.831%,0.309%,0.184%和0.055%,碳排强度对吉林省居民生活消费间接能耗的碳排影响最大。[结论]提高能源利用效率、发展新能源是减少碳排放量的首要措施。

[Objective] The energy consumption and carbon emissions in Jilin Province from residents＇ expenditure were estimated and their influence factors were analyzed, to provide government decision for guiding local resident to take low carbon consumption and for improving the regional environment.[Methods] Taking Jilin Province as an example, we calculated the energy consumption and carbon emissions generated by various types of consumer activities in 2004-2003. Based on the STIRPAT model, a multivariate linear model fitted by a ridge regression to examine the relationship between carbon emissions and a list of human activity indices was built.[Results] （1） The consumptions of living, education and entertainment, and food were the main aspects of indirect energy consumption and the carbon emission. （2） It was found that every 1% increases of carbon emission intensity, per capita consumption, population and urbanization rate, would result to 0.831%, 0.309%, 0.184% and 0.055% increases of carbon emission caused by residents＇ living consumption in Jilin Province. The intensity of carbon emissions had the greatest impact on the carbon consumption of indirect energy consumption in Jilin Province.[Conclusion] The primary measures for reduction of carbon emissions are enhancing energy utilization efficiency and developing new energy.