低油价对亚洲LNG市场的影响

The impacts of low oil prices on Asian LNG market

在低油价下,亚洲LNG现货价格有望长期低于长贸价格。低油价刺激亚洲LNG进口需求回弹,但未来需求增长的不确定性因素较多。亚洲LNG市场供过于求的状况将持续至2020年,2020年后可能出现供不应求。LNG市场继续向买方倾斜,贸易灵活度进一步提高。随着天然气供需趋于宽松,亚洲主要天然气消费国日本、韩国、中国均加快天然气市场化改革。中国天然气市场化改革需要加快天然气零售市场和配气管网改革以及交易中心建设步伐,抓住LNG买方市场的机遇,尽快突破目的地限制条款,LNG定价适时与油价脱钩。相关企业要加强与美国LNG供应商的联系,考虑在未来5年内增加美国LNG现货采购、签订中短期合约的可能性。

Driven by the low oil price, Asian spot LNG prices are expected to be kept lower than long trade prices. AsianLNG demand has been stimulated and rebound by low prices, but uncertainties are seen in the future. The over-supplied situationof Asian LNG market will be prevailed before 2020, with an alarming supply security issue looming after 2020, As a result of themarket balancing trend, LNG trading flexibilities continue to improve under a buyer market, while Japan, Korea and China allexpedite gas market-oriented reform process. It＇s suggested that China gas market-oriented reform should weigh more on openingretail market, distributive pipeline reform and trading hub development, seize the opportunities of LNG buyer market for looseningdestination clause and delinking LNG price from oil. Chinese firms should enhance the cooperation and consider the possibilities ofimporting spot LNG and signing short-middle term contracts with US LNG suppliers.