海南省天然气市场分析及发展建议

Market analysis and development proposals of natural gas in Hainan province

2015年,海南省天然气消费量为46.03亿立方米,占一次能源消费总量的18.5%,高于全国5.9%的平均水平。随着海南省"建设国际旅游岛"以及国家"一带一路"倡议的提出,海南省天然气市场迎来新的发展机遇。"十三五"期间,海南省天然气年供应能力将超过100亿立方米,整体将呈现供过于求的局面。按照"基准方案"和"潜力方案"两种情景预测,2020年海南省将消纳天然气56亿~79亿立方米。建议从挖掘培育天然气消费潜力、开拓天然气外输通道、加大储气设施建设、完善配套的政策补贴等方面推动海南省天然气市场发展。

In 2015, the natural gas consumption accounted for 18.5% of primary energy consumption in Hainan province,higher than the national average of 5.9%. With the advance of ＂international tourism island＂ and the Belt and Road initiative, thenatural gas market will usher in new opportunities in Hainan province. During 13th Five-Year period, the annual supply capacity willexceed 10 billion cubic meters and the supply will be more than the demand as a whole. By 2020, the consumption of natural gas willbe 5.6 billion to 7.9 billion cubic meters based on the forecast of the ＂benchmarking scenario＂ and ＂potential scenarios＂. To promotethe development of the natural gas market in Hainan province, the paper suggests deeply cultivating the potential market, opening upnatural gas transportation channel, enhancing natural gas emergency peaking capacity, and encouraging subsidy policies.