认知的可靠性与可能世界理论——反事实分析方法的一个案例

Knowledge and Possible Worlds:A Case Study on the Epistemological Application of Counterfactual Analysis

可能世界的模型构造可以用来确定知识及其核心本质。以信念的敏感性理论为参照,我们可以发现普理查德在利用信念的安全性理论解决彩票难题过程中存在的问题。在此基础上,通过关于相关可能世界的合理布局与安排,一种彻底基于普理查德所持安全信念理论本身的对彩票难题的有效的"反事实分析—解决"方案可以被构造出来。这一方案可以更好地捍卫信念的安全性理论,也可以更好地区分认知模态与概率在概念层面的差异。从方法论上看,反事实分析方法作为哲学方法论工具,对于解决人类思维及现实生活中遇到的问题有借鉴价值。

This paper purports to present a case study of the epistemological application of coun-terfactual analysis, which is deemed as an essential methodology in the studies of the nature of knowl-edge. Pritchard's solution to the lottery puzzle by appealing to the safety account is compared withthe sensitivity solution. Through an appropriate setting of the structure of the possible worlds for therelevant counterfactuals in question, I argue that the safety solution isno worse(if not better) thanthe sensitivity one. The view presented in this paper can help us in realizing the crucial distinctionbetween the concepts of epistemic modality and probability, which in turn sheds lights upon the rele-vant discussion of the philosophical problems.