面向CPS的高速公路凝冰短时预测与主动式防冰控制

CPS-oriented short-term icing events prediction and proactive anti-ice control for highway systems

针对影响中国高速公路行车安全与运营效率的冰雪冻雨气象灾害,基于信息物理系统(CPS)理论,设计了面向高速公路路表凝冰短时预测与主动式防冰控制的CPS模型.不同于传统的事后处置方式,该CPS可以通过主动预测和预先处置手段,防止冰雪灾害发生或降低其危害程度.围绕该CPS模型,提出了其信息世界的路表凝冰短时预测算法,并设计了相应的主动式防冰控制策略.其中,凝冰短时预测算法基于热力学理论建模空气温度和路表温度的耦合变化关系,并从凝冰事件的发生可能性及强度两个方面对预测的凝冰风险进行描述;防冰控制策略主要针对一款自研的以喷撒融雪剂方式防冰融冰的CPS物理世界装置,根据凝冰风险的可能性及强度分量远程控制该装置按照一定的模式进行工作.基于实测数据的实验分析以及针对实际路段的示范应用表明:该CPS具有较精确的凝冰预测精度,30min内的平均预测误差约为±0.2℃;融冰处置可以覆盖高速公路车道约3/4的有效行车区域,能够事先避免凝冰或积雪形成或主动降低其危害,因此在我国高速公路的信息化与效率提升建设当中具有较高的实用价值.

With regard to the meteorological disasters, e.g., ice, snow, and freezing rain, which drastically degrade the transportation safety and efficiency levels of highway systems, a Cyber-Physical System （CPS） model for road surface ice event prediction and proactive anti-ice control is proposed based on related CPS theories in.Different to the traditional post-disposal ideas, this CPS advocates a new concept of beforehand avoidance of road surface-icing,by predicting ice events in advance and conducting proposals proactively.Then, as the major components in the cyber world of this CPS, the short-term ice event pre- diction algorithm and the proactive anti-ice control strategy are sketched accordingly. Specifically, the ice event prediction algorithm is capable of modeling the coupling changing effects of air temperature and road-surface temperature with the help of thermal radiation theory, and yields the icing risk estimation on both facets of likelihood and intensity; while the anti-ice control strategy remotely controls the work- ing mode of a particular agent-spraying anti-ice device, deployed in the physical world of this CPS, ac- cording to the different likelihood and intensity levels of predicted icing risks. The experiments with actual meteorological data and the demonstration application of this CPS show that： this system can pre- dict icing-event in a rather high precision, with an average prediction error around ±0.2 ℃ within 30min period; the ice-melting results are also appreciable, with almost 3/4 of the major traffic lanes area free of ice or slightly affected. In conclusion, this CPS, with its major techniques, will be greatly applicable in the informationizing and efficiency-enhancing construction works of China highway.