架空输电线路走廊树障隐患动态管理及预警分析

Dynamic Management and Early-warning Analysis of Tree Barrier Hidden Danger in Overhead Transmission Line Corridor

为了保障输电线路安全稳定运行,开展了输电线路通道树障隐患动态管理及预警分析工作。对管辖区域的输电线路进行实地调查,建立了全网输电线路通道树障隐患资料库。通过研究典型树种的自然生长规律,提出基于贝叶斯估计法的树高生长预测模型,并建立输电线路通道树障隐患动态管理及预警分析系统,实现了树障风险的动态评估和树障隐患的及时预警。应用效果表明,该系统树障隐患预警准确、及时,预警地点与现场实测基本吻合,可为线路运维单位制订树障隐患消除策略提供参考依据。

In order to guarantee the security and stability operation of transmission line, the work of dynamic management andearly-warning analysis is developed. By field investigation of transmission line within the jurisdiction area, the database of tree barrierhidden danger of whole power grid transmission line corridors are built. By studying natural growth patterns of typical tree species, thetree height growth forecast model based on Bayesian estimation method is proposed, and the dynamic management and early-warninganalysis system of transmission line corridor is established which realizes the dynamic estimation of tree barrier risk and timely early-warning of tree barrier hidden danger. Application results show that the system＇ s early-warning of tree barrier hidden danger is accurateand timely which basically coincides with field investigation and can provides reference basis for transmission line operation andmaintenance department to make elimination strategy of tree barrier hidden danger.