考虑自然灾害的电网规划方案暂态风险评估

Transient Risk Assessment of Power Network Planning Considering Natural Disasters

在规划阶段考虑自然灾害的影响,是防范自然灾害造成电网大面积停电事故的有效手段。从故障发生概率的角度来分析所应该选取的初步故障阶数;建立了考虑静态切负荷因素的线路风险快速识别指标和算法,在调用PSD-BPA潮流程序的基础上编写了相应的计算软件,用干改进解析法计算量过大的缺点;结合电力系统稳定导则,提出了灾害情况下典型故障集合的选取规则;基于典型故障集合,采用BPA暂态稳定程序,对实际电网算例进行暂态风险评估。算例分析结果表明,通常的计算方法容易低估系统的风险,文中算法使计算结果更加精确。

Considering the influence of natural disasters in power network planning stage is an effective way to prevent blackout. Firstly,the initial failure order is selected based on the failure probability; then rapid identification index and algorithm of line risk consid- ering static load factor is established, and the corresponding calculation software is compiled based on PSD-BPA program to reduce the large amount of analytical calculation. Combined with power system stability guidelines, the selection rules of typical fault sets in disaster situations are presented. Based on the typical fault sets, the transient risk assessment of actual power system is calculated by BPA transient stability program. Example analysis shows that the common-used calculation method is easy to underestimate the system risk, while the proposed algorithm is more accurate and effective.