基于VAR模型的新型城镇化动力机制研究——以安徽省为例

Research on the dynamic mechanism of urbanization based on VAR model——taking Anhui Province as an example

采用1999—2015年安徽省城镇化、农业现代化、工业化及服务业的时间序列数据作为研究对象,建立VAR模型进行处理与检验,运用脉冲响应函数与方差分解的计量模型分析安徽省城镇化的动力机制。得到结论:农业现代化是促进安徽省城镇化的主要动力,服务业对城镇化的影响效果显著,前期具有很强的拉动力,后期影响逐步趋稳;农业与工业对城镇化的作用则需要通过时间的积累后才会发挥其效应,是安徽省新型城镇化发展的重要保证。

A VAR model is proposed as the theoretical basis,from the dynamic factors of Anhui Province new urbanization,based on time series data from 1999 to 2015,by using unit root test,Granger causality test,stability test,impulse response function and variance decomposition of econometric analysis methods to analyze the dynamic mechanism of urbanization in Anhui Province.The result of empirical analysis shows：agricultural modernization is the main power for promoting the urbanizationin Anhui Province;the effect of service industry on urbanization is extremely significant,which has a strong pulling force at early time,and gradually stabilizes in the late.The function of agriculture and industry for urbanization will play its role after the accumulation of time.