基于CA-Markov模型的巴里坤湖流域土地利用动态变化分析与预测

Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Dynamic Change in Barkol Lake Watershed Based on CA-Markov Model

随着经济和农业的快速发展,人类活动对流域生态环境的影响日益显著。在巴里坤哈萨克自治县巴里坤湖流域环境变化已经得到了当地政府的重视。本文利用CA-Markov模型对2006—2016年该流域的土地利用动态变化进行分析,并模拟预测2020年的土地利用变化。结论如下:(1)2006—2016年间,该地区林地、水域面积小幅增加;草地、未利用土地面积减少;居民点、工矿用地、盐碱地、耕地面积增加较明显;(2)模拟结果表明,巴里坤湖及周边生态系统将呈现出持续恶化的趋势。到2020年,草地、湖泊和冰川、沼泽地面积减少,而滩地、水库塘坑、盐碱地耕地面积增加较多,将导致入湖及生态用水减少,会导致湖滨湿地及周边生态系统退化、消失,使得其生态屏障的功能也随之下降。

With the rapid development of economy and agriculture, the impact of human activities on the ecological environment of the basin is becoming increasingly significant. The environmental changes in the Barkol Lake Basin in the Barry Kun Kazakh Autonomous County have got the attention of the local government. In this paper, the CA-Markov model was used to analyze the dynamic changes of land use in this basin from 2006 to 2016, and simulate the forecast of land use change in 2020. Conclusion as below：（1） from 2006 to 2016, the area of forest land, water area increased slightly; grassland, unused land area decreased; residential, industrial land,saline land and cultivated area increased more obvious;（2） the simulation results show that the Barkol Lake and the surrounding ecosystem will show a trend of continued deterioration. By 2020, grassland, lake and glacier, marsh area decreased, and beach, reservoir pond, saline land to increase the area, will lead to the lake and ecological water reduction, will lead to a large number of lake wetlands disappear, making its ecological barrier function also will decline.