摘要
文章通过直接检验法选取1990-2014年商品房销售价格、城镇居民可支配收入、城镇总人口、房地产投资总额、国内生产总值和货币供应量六个变量实证分析我国房地产业存在的泡沫。首先利用多元回归和协整检验计算出房价的内在价值,然后利用实际房价与房价的内在价值计算出房地产泡沫度的大小,最后简要分析1990-2014年的房地产泡沫实际情况。
Six variables （1990-2014） ,including commercial housing price,urban residents disposable income, urban population,total real estate investment,gross domestic product, and money supply, are examined with direct test methodology to check the possibility of bubble in real estate industry. The intrinsic value of the housing price is calculated with multiple regres-sion and ADF tests. With the value of the actual housing price and its intrinsic value,the bub-ble degree is briefly analyzed to reveal the actual situation of that in 1990-2014.
出处
《哈尔滨学院学报》
2017年第7期36-39,共4页
Journal of Harbin University
基金
2016年安徽省高校优秀青年人才支持计划重点项目
项目编号:gxyq ZD2016406
关键词
房地产泡沫
多元回归
协整检验
房价
the real estate bubble
multiple regression
ADF tests
the housing price
