能源使用的经济性对化工原料发展趋势的影响研究

Study on the influence of the economic characteristics of energy utilization on the development trend of chemical raw material

能源和材料是人类社会生存和发展的重要物质基础,从能源的供应需求及其发展趋势分析了我国未来的能源结构。从石油价格的变化、石油的生产成本、未来的石油价格以及页岩气等新能源的供应等方面分析了石油基能源的发展趋势;从煤基能源存在的环境问题、能效问题及其转化利用等方面分析了煤基能源存在的问题;同时分析了生物基能源目前仍存在的技术障碍。从经济性角度研究,认为石油价格将保持在比较低的价位,仍将是我国未来的主要能源。通过对比剖析石油、煤炭和生物质能源作为化工原料的经济性和发展趋势,提出我国应实施多元化原料战略,以石油基能源为主,以煤基和生物基能源为辅;在产业结构调整过程中,石油基原料以发展为主,煤基和生物基原料以研究并取得技术突破为主。

Energy and material are the important material foundation for h u m a n society survival and development, the future ener-gy structure of our country is analyzed from energy supply and dem a n d and its developing trend. The developing trend of petroleum base energy is discussed from aspects of the petroleum price variety, production cost, future price and supply of ne w sources energy such as shale gas and so on. The existing problems of coal-based energy are expounded from aspects of environmental problem, energy efficien-cy and transformation and utilization. Meanwhile, the technical obstacles existed in the biology base energy currently are presented. From the economic point, oil prices are forecasted to remain low, and oil will remain principle energy in our country. According to the comparison among the economic characteristics and the development trend of petroleum, coal and biomass energy, this paper is attempt to explore the future diversification of chemical raw material in China, that is taking the petroleum based material as the principle one and using the coal based material and biomass material as supplement; during the structure adjustment, according to the major develop-ment of petroleum based material, the vigorously promoted of coal based material and biomass material is focused on the research area and technical breakthrough.