女性生育意愿及其实现——基于互联网问卷调查数据的实证研究

Women's Fertility Desire and Realization:An Empirical Study Based on Internet Questionnaire Survey Data

现实中存在女性生育意愿及其实现之间的背离。本文利用互联网问卷调查数据,实证分析女性生育意愿的决定,并在此基础上考察女性实现生育意愿的制约因素。研究发现,决定女性生育意愿的个体异质性中,受教育程度、生育经历、性取向、价值观显著影响女性生育意愿,而年龄、婚姻状况、收入和城乡差异的作用均不显著;在女性实现生育意愿的制约因素中,不同来源的社会压力会导致女性生育过度或生育不足,家庭压力通常迫使女性生育过度,经济条件限制、身体条件限制则导致女性生育不足。进一步分析表明,计划生育政策缓解了生育过度女性所面对的社会压力和家庭压力,而全面二孩政策则可能放大这些压力;这两类生育政策对生育不足女性的影响均不显著。本文的研究结论,凸显了女性实现生育意愿的重要性。

In real life, there is a divergence between women＇s fertility desire and its realization. In this paper, we use the internet questionnaire survey data, empirically analyze the determination of women＇ s fertili- ty desire, and on this basis identify constraint factors on realization of women＇ s fertility desire. The study finds that among the individual heterogeneities to determine women＇ s fertility desire, education level and fertility experience significantly improve women＇ s fertility desire, while homosexuality and feminist values significantly reduce mong the factors to constrain realization of women＇ s fertility desire, social pressure from different sources can lead to excessive or inadequate fertilityamily pressure usually force women to have excessive fertili- ty, and limits of economic condition and physical condition lead to inadequate fertility. Further analysis shows that the family planning policy eases social and family pressures on women with excessive fertility which may be amplified by the overall two-child policy, and the two fertility policies affect women with inadequate fertili- ty insignificantly. Study conclusion of this paper highlights the importance of realization for women＇ s fertility desire.