地方债管理新政对城投债信用风险的影响研究

Study on the Impact of New Local Government Debt Management Policies on Urban Construction Investment Bonds' Credit Risk

地方债管理新政提出全面加强地方政府性债务管理,可能导致存量城投债信用能力发生分化。本文基于2012—2015年间企业债面板数据,将地方债管理新政作为政策冲击,采用双重差分法评估政策实施对于存量城投债信用风险的影响。实证结果表明,在剔除其他因素对信用风险的影响后,地方债管理新政显著增大了存量城投债信用风险;地方融资平台的政府债务认定率越小、获得的政府支持力度越小,地方债管理新政对存量城投债信用风险的放大作用越显著。地方政府应妥善处理存量债务,确定合理的政府债务认定率,适当加大政府支持力度,提高地方融资平台经营能力,以实现新旧地方债管理方式的平稳过渡。

The new local government debt management policies suggest strengthening the administration of gov- ernment debt comprehensively, which may lead to credit differentiation of existing urban construction investment bonds. Based on the corporate debt panel data from 2012 to 2015, DID Model is used to evaluate the impact of the poli- cy implementation on existing urban construction investment bonds＇ credit risk, with the new local government debt management policies as a policy shock. After eliminating the influence of other factors, the empirical results show that the new local government debt management policies increase the credit risk of existing urban construction investment bonds＇ credit risk significantly. In addition, the lower the rate of government debt recognition is and the smaller govern- ment support is, the greater the risk amplification is. The local government should properly handle the stock debt by de- termining a reasonable rate of government debt recognition. Government support ought to be properly increased to im- prove the local financing platforms＇ operation capacity, which can help to realize the smooth transition between the new local government debt management way and the old way.