基于超标准地震风险分析的铁路方案评价模型

Scheme evaluation model of railway based on exceeding standard seismic risk analysis

所谓超标准地震定义为地震烈度超过了铁路工程抗震设计规范规定的各类铁路工程的抗震设防烈度,并可能导致严重灾害的大地震。超标准地震发生的可能性是存在的,但现有工程抗震设计规范却并未考虑超标准地震的风险。一种具可操作性的方法是,将超标准地震风险,放在铁路选线设计的方案比选环节中体现。基于风险分析理论,以考虑了超标准地震风险的期望年换算工程运营费,作为高烈度地震区新建铁路方案评价指标;提出用联合概率模型计算铁路服务期内超标准地震复发的条件概率,并利用汶川地震实震资料建立了铁路线路工程灾害损失费的预估方法;最后通过康昌铁路炉霍段方案评价实例,说明了期望年换算工程运营费的计算程式。从而建立了一种与原则方案确定阶段精度要求相匹配的高烈度地震区铁路方案评价模型。

So-called exceeding standard earthquakes are defined as large earthquakes which is beyond the fortifica- tion intensity of all types of railway engineering stipulated by code for seismic design of railway engineering and may lead to serious disasters. There exists the possibility of exceeding standard earthquake occurrence, but the current code for seismic design of engineering does not take their risk into account. An operable method is to put the excee- ding standard seismic risk in the optimal selection of railway location designs. Based on the risk analysis theory, a method of expectation annual conversion project operation cost considering exceeding standard earthquake risk was regarded as an evaluation index for newly built railway in highly seismic intensity area. Then, the joint probabilistic model was introduced to calculate the conditional probability of earthquake recurrence during the period of railway service. And a disaster losses prediction method of railway line engineering was also established by applying real seismic data of Wenchuan earthquake. Finally, a scheme evaluation example of Kang-Chang railway at Luhuo sec- tion was used to illustrate the od. Above work established a operation procedure of the expectation annual conversion project operation cost meth- scheme evaluation model of railway in highly seismic intensity area which matches with the determinate stage of principle scheme.