基于复杂网络的洪灾危险性分析方法与应用

Flood hazard analysis method based on complex network approach and its application

洪灾危险性分析是洪灾风险研究的重要内容,洪灾源、传播途径及承灾体各部分之间存在着复杂的相互作用。采用复杂网络工具进行分析,可以更好地反映问题的本质特征。基于二维SPR概念模型,提出了一种利用复杂网络的洪灾危险性分析方法。首先,将研究区域按用地类型划分成分析单元,并根据单元之间的邻接关系辨识相互之间的影响方式;利用TOPSIS多属性决策工具计算以流量为基础的综合指标,以表征单元之间的相互影响强度;而后结合DEMATEL方法,计算分析单元的影响度、被影响度指标,并以水位差的3/2次幂函数表征洪水强度指标,定义洪水强度与被影响度乘积为各单元的危险性指数。该方法丰富了洪灾危险性分析的方法和内容,为防灾减灾措施的采取提供了新的视角。最后,以一个简化的案例分析,展示了该方法的应用步骤。

Flood hazard analysis is important content of flood risk research. Due to complicated interactions among flood source, propagation pathway and hazard-affected body, complex network approach could be an effective tool to analyze the problem. Based on the 2D-SPR conceptual model, a new flood hazard analysis method employing complex network theory was proposed. Firstly, the studied area was divided into analytical elements in accordance with their land use types and the influence way each other was identified by the adjacent relation of the clemens. Multi-attribute decision-making tool TOPSIS was adopted to calculate compehensive index, the index was based on flow quantily to express the influence intensity of elements each other. After that, combined with DEMATEL meth- od, the influencing degree and influenced degree indices of the elements were calculated and analyzed, the flood intensity index was expressed by 3/2 power function of difference in water level. Risk index of each element was definited as the product of flood intensity and the influenced degree. The method enriches the content of flood haz- ard analysis, and presents a new sight angle for adoption of disaster prevention and reduction measurement. At last, a simplified case study shows the steps of using the proposed method.