基于GIS的河南省冬小麦干热风风险评估及区划

Risk assessment and zoning of winter wheat dry-hot wind in Henan Province based on GIS technology

干热风是影响河南省冬小麦后期生长发育及产量的重大农业气象灾害之一,对小麦安全生产造成严重威胁。根据冬小麦干热风国家气象行业标准,基于河南省冬麦区(18个地市)1980-2014年的逐日地面气象观测数据和耕地面积、冬小麦播种面积和产量、灌溉面积等统计资料,利用AHP(层次分析法)和WCA(加权综合评价法)构建以危险性、易损性、敏感性和抗灾能力为主要指标体系的小麦干热风综合风险评估模型,对河南省的干热风风险进行全面评估;并在GIS技术支持下,对其风险分布进行区划和制图表达。结果表明:河南省干热风高风险区域主要分布在驻马店、许昌、豫东商丘、开封和豫北安阳、鹤壁等地;中等风险区域主要位于南阳中东部、周口、豫北新乡、濮阳以及郑州东部和洛阳北部的部分地区;河南西北部济源、焦作以及豫西三门峡和洛阳、豫中部平顶山和漯河、信阳西部等地为干热风低风险区域。

The dry-hot wind is one of the major agrometeorological disasters influencing winter wheat late growth and yield in Henan Province. It is a serious threat to wheat production safety. According to the winter wheat dry-hot wind national meteorological industry standard, based on the ground meteorological observation data of 18 cities and prefectures in Henan Province day by day from 1980 to 2014 and the cultivated land area, winter wheat planting ar- ea and yield, irrigation area and other statistical data, togather with using AHP （analytic hierarchy process） and WCA （ weighted comprehensive evaluation method） this paper constructs a winter wheat dry-hot wind comprehensive risk assessment model, taking hazard, vulnerability, sensitivity and anti-disaster ability as the main index system, and conducts a（ over all） risk assessment of dry-hot wind in Henan province. Under the GIS support, risk zoning and drawing expression are given. The results show that： Dry-hot wind high-risk areas are mainly distributed in Zhumadian, Xuchang, Shangqiu, Kaifeng and Anyang, Hebi and other places; the medium risk areas are mainly located in the east-central of Nanyang, Zhoukou, Xinxiang, Puyang and east of Zhengzhou and north of Luoyang; the low-risk areas are northwest Henan Jiyuan, Jiaozuo, as well as the western Sanmengxia, Luoyang and Ping dingshan, Luohe in the central of Henan and the west of Xinyang.