基于CMIP5模型结果的中国陆地生态系统未来碳利用效率变化趋势分析

Future trends in carbon use efficiency for Chinese terrestrial ecosystem based on CMIP5 model results

为研究气候变化条件下中国陆地生态系统未来碳利用效率(CUE)变化趋势及其响应,选取第5次耦合模式比较计划12种模型,分析在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5这3种典型排放情景下,2006—2100年中国陆地生态系统总体的CUE变化趋势及其与温度和降水的关系。研究发现,不同模型模拟的中国陆地生态系统总体的CUE变化范围在0.332~0.617,在此期间所有模型模拟结果的平均值保持在0.5左右,其幅度变化较小,随时间呈现略微降低的趋势,并随着辐射强迫水平的增加(从RCP2.6到RCP4.5再到RCP8.5),降低趋势有所加强。未来气候变化背景下,中国陆地生态系统总体的CUE与降水基本呈正相关关系,而与温度基本呈负相关关系。

The datasets of gross primary production, net primary production, mean annual precipitation, and mean annual temperate were collected from the results of 12 models in Phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to investigate the temporal patterns of carbon use efficiency （CUE） for Chinese terrestrial ecosystem and the relationship between CUE and climate factors under different emission scenarios （ RCP2.6, RCP4. 5, and RCP8.5 ） from 2006 to 2100. Our results showed that the CUE from the different models for Chinese terrestrial ecosystem ranged from 0. 332 to 0. 617 with a mean level of 0.5 under the three scenarios. Slight decreasing trends were detected for CUE and these trends were enhanced by increasing radiation force. Future CUE of Chinese terrestrial ecosystem mostly had positive correlation with precipitation while negative correlation with temperature.