金融密度的省际差异及其决定因素——基于四层次三维度空间分布评价系统的构建与实证检验

The Provincial Differences of Financial Density and Analysis of Its Determinants:Based on the Construction and Empirical Test of Four-level and Three-dimension Spatial Distribution Evaluation System

金融密度是金融排斥的结果,也是金融包容性发展改进路径的起点。长期以来,我国正规金融体系的倾向性资源配置行为直接导致了金融密度的省际差异,推进普惠金融发展需要全面把握金融密度的状态,而对金融密度的评测检验需要新的方法。笔者构建了基于人口、地理、企业、产业四个层次,银行、证券、保险三个维度的金融密度指标体系和大类指数,从理论和实证两方面检验金融密度地区差异的决定因素。研究发现:我国东部地区的人口、地理、产业金融密度水平远高于中、西部地区,但企业金融密度不存在明显的区域性差异;在金融密度决定方面,乡村人口占比低、教育程度高、人均收入高、信息化水平越高的城市,人口金融密度越高;地理金融密度受手机地理覆盖率的影响;金融资源在企业间的配置状态由国有企业占比、企业财务杠杆比率以及企业信息化指数决定;产业金融密度则主要取决于区域产业结构。因此,建设普惠金融体系需要从调整决定金融密度差异性的关键因素入手进行顶层设计。

Financial density is the result of financial exclusion, and also the start point of improving path of inclusive finance development. For a long time, the tendentious resource allocation behavior of informal finan- cial system directly leads to the provincial differences of financial density, to promote inclusive finance develop- ment needs to fully grasp the state of financial density. However, the evaluation of financial density requires new methodology. The paper constructs the financial density index system and major category index of four-level based on population, geography, enterprise and industry from three dimensions of bank, security and insurance. We further explore the determinants of regional differences in financial density from two aspects of theory and empirical studies. The research shows that： financial density of population, geography, enterprise and industry in eastern region of China is much higher than that in the middle and western regions, but there is no obvious re- gional difference in the enterprise financial density. From the aspect of financial density determinants, the city with lower proportion of rural population, higher education level, higher per capita income and higher informa- tion degree, the population density is higher. Geographical financial density is influenced by the geographical coverage of mobile phone. The allocation state of financial resources among enterprises is determined by the pro- portion of state-owned enterprises, financial leverage ratio and information index of company. Industrial financial density is mainly determined by the regional industrial structure. Therefore, the construction of inclusive finan- cial system need top-level design from the key factors whieh will determine the financial density differences.