中国旅游业对外直接投资特征及其关联因素分析

An Analysis of the Characteristics and Related Factors of China's Foreign Direct Investment in Tourism Industry

当前中国旅游业OFDI不断增长,认识和把握其时空特征及关联因素,对于国家进行相应的宏观管理和中国旅游企业制订具体投资战略具有参考价值。本文利用2004-2015年中国旅游业OFDI的流量、存量数据分析中国旅游业OFDI的特征及关联因素。时间序列分析表明中国旅游业OFDI流量和存量整体呈增长趋势,且二者的增长均呈现"乘幂"型特征;空间分布分析表明中国主要的对外投资国家(地区)大致跟随出境旅游国家(地区),"资金流"和"人流"之间存在较好的伴随状态;灰色关联度分析表明人均GDP、出境旅游人数和入境旅游人数分别是影响中国旅游业OFDI的前三大因素,其中,人均GDP是其基础,出境旅游人数是其载体,入境旅游是其重要保障。

At present, the OFDI of China＇s tourism industry is increasing constantly. It is of reference value for China to carry out corresponding macro management and formulate specific investment strategies for China＇s tourism industry to un- derstand its temporal and spatial characteristics and related factors. According to the flow and stock data of OFDI in China＇ s tourism industry from 2004 to 2015, this paper analyzes its development characteristics and the related factors. The analy- sis of time series shows that the OFDI flow and the stock of China＇s tourism industry show growth trend, and the two growth shows the ＂power＂ characteristic; the analysis of spatial distribution shows that foreign investment for major countries （ re- gions） generally follow outbound tourism countries （ regions）, there being a good state of being between ＂money flow＂ and ＂stream of people＂, which is related to the profit driven of the OFDI as well as the high consumption of outbound tourism; gray correlation analysis shows that the per capita GDP, the number of outbound tourism and the number of inbound tourists are the top three factors that affect the OFDI of China＇s tourism industry： the per capita GDP is its solid backing and foun- dation, the number of outbound tourism is its carrier, and inbound tourism is an important guarantee.