近62年新疆哈密市气候变化特征分析

Analysis on the Climate Change Characteristics in Hami of Xinjiang during the Last 62 Years

利用哈密气象站1953~2014年的逐年、逐月、季度平均气温和降水资料,采用线性回归、趋势分析和Mann-Kendall检验等方法分析了哈密市最近62年的气候变化特征.结果表明:哈密市近62年来气温呈上升趋势,年平均气温上升率为0.14℃/(10a),低于全国和新疆平均水平,1996年为增温突变点,突变后平均气温较之前上升了0.68℃;春、秋和冬季平均气温呈升高趋势,而夏季平均气温呈下降趋势;降水总体呈上升趋势,年降水量上升率为2.94mm/(10a),1986年为降水突变点,突变后年平均降水量较之前增加36.1%,1987年以来哈密市气候向暖湿化方向发展,但2010~2014年降水增加趋势略有减弱;四季降水分配不均,均呈增多趋势,秋季平均降水上升率最大,冬季最小,气候变暖引起的区域气流活动增强以及西风环流的作用可能是该区降水增多的原因.

Based on the data of annual, monthly and quarterly temperature and precipitation from Hami meteorological station during 1953~2014, with several methods such as linear regression, trend analysis and Mann-Kendall test, the paper analyzes the characteristics of climate change in Hami City during the last 62 years. The results show that： during the latest 62 years in Hami,the temperature showed a rising trend, and the increasing rate of mean annual temperature was 0.14 ℃/10 a, lower than the average level of Xinjiang and China. Through the mutation test,the mutation point was 1996,and the annual temperature has risen 0. 68 ℃ since 1996. The average temperature in spring,autumn and winter showed an increasing trend,while the average temperature in summer showed a decreasing trend. The annual precipitation also increased overall since the last 62 years, with an increasing rate 2.94 mm/10 a. The mutation of precipitati- on was 1986,and the annual average precipitation increased 36.1% than before. Since 1987, the climate of Hami was becoming warmer and wetter, the annual precipitation increased slightly, but decreased during 2010~2014. The quantity of rainfall throughout seasons was uneven,which showed an increasing trend. The increasing rate in the fall was the largest,while in the winter was the lowest. Regional air flow and the effect of the westerly circulation may be the cause of the precipitation increase.