CMIP5不同典型浓度情景下中国极端高温的时空变化

Temporal and spatial variations of extremely high temperature in China under different emission scenarios of CMIP5

基于CMIP5的5个模式逐日最高温度模拟数据,在RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景下,以年高温日、强危害性高温日、热浪日数及高温极值等4个极端高温要素为研究对象,通过多模式集合加权平均预估了未来2011年~2099年间近期(2011年~2040年)、中期(2041年~2070年)和远期(2071年~2099年)不同时段极端高温的时空变化,结果表明:1)随着排放浓度的增高,4个高温要素值均呈增加趋势,RCP8.5情景下增加最为剧烈;与基期(1981年~2010年)比较,RCP8.5远期(2071年~2099年)高温日数、强危害性高温日数、热浪日数大多增加4~8倍,西北、黄淮海、东南、长江中下游等区域普遍出现了45℃以上高温极值;与基期比较,远期极端高温增加1.2~7.5℃;2)对于各高温要素值,RCP2.6、RCP4.5中期增幅较大,而RCP6.0、RCP8.5远期增幅较大;3)4种浓度情景下,各区域高温要素值增量变化差异较大,其中,高温日数、热浪日数在东南区增量最大,其余由大至小为依次为长江中下游区、黄淮海区、西北区、西南区、东北区;而强危害性高温日数、年高温极值则以长江中下游区增量最大,其余由高至低为西北区、黄淮海区、东南区、西南区和东北区.

Based on the scenarios data of five climate modes by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial variation of extreme temperature indexes,including the number of high temperature days,strong hazard high temperature days,heat waves days and the maximum temperature under the Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6,4.5,6.0and 8.5during the year from 2011 to 2099.Results show that：1）as the increase of emission concentration the four high temperature index value are elevated,in which RCP8.5scenario changed most.2）From the near（2011-2040）,the mid（2041-2070）to long term（2071-2099）,the values of high temperature various are increased,and the values in the RCP2.6and RCP4.5increase higher in the mid period than other two terms,while in the RCP6.0and RCP8.5the values increase highest in the long term.3）The increment of the four various values is great difference in different regions under four scenarios concentrations.The number of high temperature days and heatwave days has highest increment in the southeast,the next turn is the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,the North,Northwest,Southwest and Northeast of China,while the strong hazard high temperature days and the maximum temperature are the highest increments in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,and the next turn is the northwest,the North,the southeast,the southwest and the northeast.