年代际气候预测问题:科学前沿与挑战

Decadal Climate Prediction: Scientific Frontier and Challenge

未来10~30年气候状态的预测是当前国际气候领域的研究热点,被包括世界气候研究计划耦合模式比较计划(CMIP)在内的国际科学计划列为核心内容。年代际气候预测已经从最早单纯关注未来10~30年的气候变化拓展为关注未来1~10年或者30年的逐年气候状态。国际上开始尝试基于年代际气候预测系统发布未来1年和5年平均的气候展望。针对年代际气候预测的科学前沿和挑战问题,从年代际气候可预报性的理论认知、当前国际上关于年代际气候预测的主要科学进展2个角度进行了总结,据此提出了该领域亟待解决的前沿科学问题,对提升年代际气候预测技巧的途径进行了讨论。

The prediction of climate change in the future 10 ~ 30 year is a hot research area of the international community of the climate science, which has been listed as a core content of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP） and some other important international scientific projects. The forecast object of the decadal cli- mate prediction has been extended from averaged state over the future 10 - 30 years to temporal evolutions in future 1 - 10 or 30 years. Recently, the World Meteorological Organization （WMO） has been preparing to issue climate states in the near future based on decadal climate prediction systems. Focusing on the cut-edging and challenging scientific questions of the decadal climate prediction, we reviewed the theoretic basis of the predictability of the deeadal climate and recent progresses of the practical decadal prediction experiments by international modelling centers in the paper. Finally, we summarized the core scientific questions to be solved in the area and discuss ed possible pathways to improve the skills of the deeadal climate prediction.