基于知识的国防采办风险评估方法

Knowledge-Based Approach to Manage Acquisition Risk

美国审计总署(GAO)每年都会对美军的国防采办项目进行评估,以防控在国防采办中出现的风险。GAO在获得项目的关键技术、成本、进度等信息,以及在研发、生产过程中产生的统计数据后,采用基于知识的国防采办风险评估方法,对国防采办项目进行评估,提示项目全寿命周期中存在的风险。该方法在国防采办过程中设置三个关键知识点,分别对资源与需求匹配性、产品设计稳定性、生产过程成熟度进行分析。本文详细介绍了美军基于知识的国防采办风险评估方法,并以美军先进反辐射导弹AGM-88E项目为例进行介绍,最后提出了对我军国防采办启示。

U. S. Government Accountability Office （GAO） evaluates the US defense acquisition programs to manage risk every year. After obtaining information on key technologies, costs and schedules, as well as the statistical data in the R ＆ D and production processes, GAO adopts the knowledge-based defense acquisition risk assessment method to evaluate the risk of the defense acquisition project. This method sets up three key knowledge points in the acquisition＇ s process and analyzes the matching of resources and demand, product design stability and production process maturity respectively. This paper introduces the knowledge-based defense risk assessment method, and the project about the advanced anti-missile missile AGM - 88E is selected as the example to be introduced. Some suggestions on our military defense acquisition are proposed.