气候资源变化对阜阳地区主要农作物产量的影响

Effect of Climate Change on Yield of Main Crops in Fuyang Area

利用1986—2015年阜阳市逐日降水、气温、日照资料,分析气候变化趋势,并以当地主要农作物冬小麦为例,分析气候变化对该地区农作物产量的影响,针对其不利影响提出农业领域应对气候变化的策略。结果表明,近30年来阜阳地区热量资源有所增加,但在增温的同时,降水及日照时数却略有下降。降水时期分布不均,特别是拔节孕穗期降水量的多寡是冬小麦产量的限制因子;越冬期≥10℃积温的提高,有助于冬小麦的安全越冬,但也造成虫口密度增加,导致病虫害危害加剧以及杂草蔓延。应从调整种植制度、加强新品种选育、加强农业气象灾害防御、加强农业基础设施建设等方面来应对气候变化对农作物的不利影响。

Using the daily precipitation, temperature and sunshine data of Fuyang City during 1986 - 1505, the trend of climate change was analyzed. Taking the main crop winter wheat as an example, the effect of climate change on crop yield in this area was analyzed, and the coun- termeasures were put forward to address the climate change in agricultural field. The results showed that the heat resources in Fuyang area was increased in the past 30 years, but the precipitation and sunshine hours were decreased slightly. The distribution of precipitation was uneven, especially the amount of precipitation at jointing and booting stage was the limiting factor of winter wheat yield. The increase of i〉 10 ~C accu- mulated temperature in overwintering period would help the winter wheat safety winter, but also increase the population density, which would lead to the increase of pests and diseases and the spread of weeds. We should respond to the adverse effects of climate change on crops from the aspects of adjusting the planting system, strengthening new varieties breeding, strengthening agriculture meteorological disaster prevention, strengthening agricultural infrastructure construction and so on.