重庆市第一产业结构的动态偏离-份额分析

Dynamic Shift-Share Analysis of Primary Industrial Structure in Chongqing

运用动态偏离-份额分析方法,以全国为参照系,对1997—2014年重庆市的第一产业内部结构进行了分析。结果表明,重庆市第一产业的产业结构素质较差,发展水平落后于全国水平,农林牧渔业大都缺乏竞争力优势,且产业结构不均衡,第一产业经济主要靠全国经济带动发展。基于以上研究结果,提出了寻求重庆市农林牧渔业新的发展方向的对策建议。

Based on the national reference system ,we used the calculation method of dynamic shift-share analysis to analyze the primary industrial structure of Chongqing from 1997 to 2014. The results showed that the primary industry＇ suffers from a poor-quality industrial structure with its development level lagged behind the national level. The agricuhure,forestry, animal husbandry and fishecy industries are mostly less competitive with an unbalanced industrial structure. The primary industrial economy is mostly driven by the national economy. Based on the research findings stated above ,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to seek the new development direction for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries.