道路拥堵程度对公交行程时间可靠性的影响研究

Research on the Effect of Road Congestion on the Reliability of Bus Trip Time

为了解决日趋严重的城市交通拥堵问题,进一步提高公交车辆的服务水平,本文结合国内外的研究经验从路段平均行程速度、交叉口饱和度、路段饱和度以及交叉口平均排队时间4个道路拥堵程度评价指标出发,构造了一个系统的多因素综合评价模型,建立了道路拥堵程度评价体系.在分析道路拥堵的基础上,建立了基于道路拥堵程度的公交行程时间可靠性的预测模型.通过采集实际的交通流数据以及公交车站点间的行程时间,讨论不同道路拥堵程度下的公交行程时间可靠性,验证了该模型.研究结果表明:道路拥堵程度对公交行程时间可靠性有较大的影响.

In order to solve the problem of urban traffic congestion and further improve the service level of public transport vehicles, this paper analyzed the domestic and international research experience. Based on the four road congestion evaluation indices （i. e. , the average travel speed, the section saturation, the intersection saturation and the average queuing time of the intersection）, a systematic multi-factor comprehensive evaluation model is constructed, and the evaluation system of road congestion is established. Based on the analysis of road congestion, a prediction model of bus travel time reliability based on road congestion is established. By using the actual traffic flow data and the travel time between the bus stations, this paper analyzed the reliability of the bus travel time under different road congestion levels; the model is thus validated. The results show that the level of road congestion has a great influence on the reliability of bus travel time.