乌龙泉矿生产能力规划及决策分析

Capacity Planning and Decision Analysis for Wulongquan Mine

针对乌龙泉矿生产现状和生产能力的决策需求,采用回归分析方法对该矿近10年的生产成本和产量统计数据进行拟合分析,确定矿山成本-产量函数表达式,进而基于资源价值最大化原则建立乌龙泉矿生产能力规划模型,探寻该矿0^+43 m开采范围内矿产资源开采量的变化规律,客观地反映了该矿矿体赋存条件差异和开采技术条件差异对生产能力决策的影响,减少了模型参数确定的主观随意性。结合矿山现有设备配置及使用情况,遵循设备投资投入最小原则,确定该矿0^+43 m开采范围内的生产能力方案为:第1阶段(第1~15年)生产能力为240×104t/a;第2阶段(第16~30年)生产能力为350×104t/a。

According to production status and decision-making requirement in capacity planning for Wulongquan Mine,the production cost and output statistics of the mine in the past 10 years were analyzed by using the regression analysis method,with a cost-production function expression obtained. Then,a capacity planning model was established based on the principle of maximizing resources value,for exploring a variation in the mined-out quantity of mineral resources within the exploitation range of 0 ~ ＋43 m. The model can objectively reflect the impact of difference in the occurrence condition of the ore body and mining technology conditions on the decision-making for production capacity,thus reducing subjective randomness resulted from the model. Based on the existed equipment and facility configuration and practical usage on site,a production capacity plan for the mine within the 0 ~ ＋ 43 m of the exploitation scope was proposed,including capacity of 240 × 10^4t/a at the 1ststage（during 1 ~ 15 year）,and 350 × 10^4t/a at the 2ndstage（during16 ~ 30 year）.