基于需求更新的班轮舱位预订决策与协调策略

Decision and Coordination Strategy for Liner Slots Booking Based on Demand Updating

鉴于即期货主需求较难准确预测,使得班轮舱位订货存在很大不确定性的情况,班轮公司为保证自身利润,往往要求船代公司采取批量订舱的策略.基于市场需求信息更新的情况,建立了两阶段班轮企业和船代企业的利润模型,比较了集中决策和分散决策下两种策略的优劣和获得利润的大小,并通过设计有效的班轮舱位回购契约对供应链进行有效的协调,以实现班轮公司和船代公司各自的供舱量和订舱量决策达到集中决策时的最优水平,从而使得供应链成员实现共赢.最后,通过算例分析对模型进行验证和说明.

Considering the difficulty to precisely forecast the demand of consignor,there is large uncertainty in booking shipping slots.The liner company always requires the shipping agency to adopt the strategy of lot booking to protect its own profits.A two-stage profit model was built for the liner company and shipping agency based on the demand information updating of the market.Also,the optimal level of the centralized decision making for the slot supply quantity of the liner company and the booking quantity of the shipping agency was realized.A win-win situation for both the members in the supply chain was achieved by comparing the advantages and profits of centralized and decentralized decision making strategies and by designing an effective slot buy-back contract to coordinate the supply chain.The results by means of different models were illustrated by numerical analysis examples.