京津冀协同发展视阈下津冀港口群自组织演化研究

On Self-Organization Evolution of Jin-Ji Port Groups:Perspective of Collaborative Development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

京津冀协同发展为津冀港口群自组织演化注入了新的活力。文章基于协同学理论,运用动力学方法,以赢利能力和协同水平为序变量,外部投入为控制变量,京津冀协同发展的环境变化为随机涨落力,构建津冀港口群自组织演化模型,并对模型进行了稳定性分析和不同条件下的序变量分析。通过模型仿真得出:津冀港口群系统的演化过程可以分为形成期、成长初期、成长后期、成熟期、衰退期五个阶段,并总结了各阶段的参数条件和具体表现。研究揭示了港口群自组织演化的过程和规律,为津冀港口群的发展提供依据。

The collaborative development of Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei region has been vitalizing the self- organi-zation evolution of Jin-ji port groups. In this paper , a self-organization evolution model is established by using collaborative theory and dynamics approach with profitability and synergy level as order parameters external investment as a control parameter , and the policy of the collaborative development of Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei region as a random disturbance factor. With an analysis and simulation of the model , this paper concludes that the development of Jin-ji port groups goes through five stages ： emergence , infancy, growing- up, maturation and degeneration. Meanwhile it summarizes the parameter conditions and concrete manifestations for each stage. This study reveals the evolution process and rules for self-organization of port groups, providing a ref-erence for the development of Jin-ji port groups.