非正规金融与民营经济的动态效应研究

On Dynamic Effect of Informal Finance and Private Economy

以重庆1997-2015年的非正规金融和民营经济数据为样本,采用静态与动态相结合的计量分析方法进行实证研究.研究发现,非正规金融和民营经济长期存在一种均衡关系;非正规金融与民营经济存在双向Granger因果关系;进一步用空间状态模型分析发现非正规金融和民营经济在长期正相关关系中具有一定的时变性.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the mechanism and practical effect of informal finance and private economy.Based on the data of informal finance and private economy in Chongqing from 1997to2015,this article takes static and dynamic combination of econometric methods for empirical research.The result shows that there are an equilibrium relationship between informal finance and private economy in the long run,besides there is a mutual Granger causality relationship between informal finance and private economy,meanwhile,the spatial state model found that there is a certain time variability in the long-term positive correlation between informal finance and private economy.