基于CES生产函数的国防支出就业效应研究

The Employment Effect of Defense Expenditure Based on CES Production Functions

通过在CES生产函数中引入国防支出变量,并运用ARDL方法建立ARDL-ECM模型,探讨了国防支出与就业之间的短期波动和长期均衡关系。研究发现我国国防支出在短期内促进就业,但从长期看,我国国防支出的就业效应为负。研究结果表明要使国防支出在促进劳动力就业方面长期发挥作用,需要从军事人才培养体系、军事技术创新、军民融合等方面进一步优化国防资源配置。

This paper utilizes Constant Elasticity of Substitution. Production. Functions to study the effects of defense expenditure on. employment. Then, it estimates the relation, of defense expenditure and employment in. long-run. and short-run. by means of autoregressive distributed lag model and error correction, model. The result indicates that they have an. equilibrium and stable relationship in. the long term, that is ,the defense expendi-ture have negatively effects on. employment,but the effects reverse in. the short term. Hereby,the study thinks that it is must to optimize the system of military human, resource,arouse innovation, of military technology and implement army-civilian, support etc.