人民币内外价值关系与汇率波动因素探析

The Analysis on the Relationship between Internal and External Value of RMB and Factors of Exchange Rate Fluctuations

1995年以来,人民币经历了两个贬值周期。不同于以往两个周期,2016年的人民币贬值并没有伴随物价下跌,这表明此次人民币贬值的主导因素是"美元加息"等外部冲击,并且此次冲击并未波及到我国的物价。长期来看:人民币升值和通货膨胀并存,人民币内外价值表现为背离趋势,IMF和世界银行公布的全球物价上涨程度超过我国,可以在一定程度上解释这种现象。从短期看:人民币实际有效汇率指数和我国物价水平在波动方向和幅度上并没有表现出稳定的关系,两者或同升同降,或一升一降,关系较为复杂;2005年汇改之前两者同升同降的情况居多,2005年之后,两者反向波动的情况增多,汇改之后人民币汇率的市场敏感性增强。协整检验发现:物价水平、经济增长速度和外汇储备都对汇率具有显著影响。

RMB has experienced two cycles of depreciation since 1995. Being different from former two cycles, the depreciation of RMB in 2016 was not accompanied by a falling price, which shows that the dominant factor of this depreciation is external shocks like that FDR raises the interest rate, however, the impact does not spread to China5 s price. In the long term, RMB appreciation and inflation will co-exist, and the internal and external value of RMB will deviate. According to the data published by IMF and the World Bank, the degree of the global price rise is more than China5 s, which can explain this phenomenon to some extent. In the short term, the relationship between RMB real effective exchange rate index and the price level in China is unstable in the direction and fluctuated amplitude, sometimes both ascending and descending, or sometimes fluctuating in different directions, and the relationship is more complicated. Before the exchange rate reform in 2005, fluctuations in same directions were more ordinary. While after 2005, fluctua-tions in different directions have been more ordinary, and the exchange rate of RMB has been more sensitive to markets. Co-integration test finds that the price level, economic growth speed and foreign exchange reserves have significant effect on the exchange rate.