投资者视角下的奖励型众筹问题研究

Research on the Problem of Reward-Based Crowd-Funding with Perspective of the Investors

随着众筹行业的迅猛发展,众筹项目数量迅速增长,使得投资者在项目选择上花费了大量的时间精力.本文旨在帮助投资者以最少时间成本选择优质的众筹项目.在假设众筹项目优质程度与融资完成比有正相关关系的前提下,本文基于京东众筹数据,利用CART回归树算法进行决策树建模,模型R^2达到0.746.研究结果表明,投资者应重点关注目标金额,关注人数,项目进展和话题这四个指标.本文研究结果仅适用于奖励型众筹,对于其他类型众筹应当重新选择自变量进行模型建立,但决策树模型仍然可以适用.

With the rapid development of the crowd-funding, the rapid increase in the number of such projects costs investors a lot of time and effort. This paper aims to help investors select high-quality crowd-funding projects with the least time. Under the assumption that there is a positive correlation between the quality of public projects and the completion ratio of financing（Ratio）, the model in this paper is modeled using the CART regression tree algorithm based on the JD Crowd-funding data with R-2 reaching 0.746. The results show that investors should focus on the Target Amount（TA）, the Follower, the Progress and the Topic. The results of this paper are only applicable to reward-based crowdfunding projects. For other types of Crowd-funding, the independent variables should be re-selected for model building,but the decision tree model can still be applied.