人民币国际化进程中浙江省跨境人民币套利套汇现象研究

A Study on RMB Arbitrage in Zhejiang Province in the Process of RMB Internationalization

近年来,随着跨境人民币业务的不断推进,人民币国际化取得显著进展。已有研究表明,香港离岸人民币市场与大陆在岸人民币市场之间,存在较为明显的套利套汇现象。目前的人民币国际化进程在一定程度上也受到了套利套汇行为的驱动,但套利套汇也带来福利损失。浙江省作为我国典型的外向型经济大省,适合作为研究跨境人民币的样本。本文首先分别介绍全国与浙江省人民币国际化进程以及离岸人民币市场的发展现状。然后在详细研究两种套汇机制和一种套利机制,以及相应的七种具体的套利套汇方式。在利用典型相关分析对浙江省跨境收支的主要明细项的套利套汇现象进行分析。最后提出三条政策建议:一是及时有效抑制套利套汇、缓解汇率贬值预期;二是注意资本项目可兑换与汇率完全市场化的改革时序;三是让人民币国际化成为市场选择的结果。

In recent years, with the continuous progress of cross-border RMB business, RMB internationalization has been seen significant progress. Studies have shown that between the Hong Kong offshore RMB market and the mainland onshore RMB market, there are more obvious arbitrage phenomenon. To a certain extent the current process of RMB internationalization is driven by arbitrage, which also brings benefits losses. Zhejiang province, as a typical export-oriented economy in China, is a good example for studying cross-border RMB. First, this paper introduced the status quo and development process of RMB internationalization and the offshore RMB market. Then study three arbitrage mechanisms and the corresponding seven specific arbitrage methods. Use canonical correlation analysis to study the arbitrage phenomenon of Zhejiang. Finally, give three suggestions： First, suppress the arbitrage timely and effectively and ease the expected depreciation of the exchange rate; second, pay attention to reform timing between capital account convertibility and exchange rate fully market-oriented; third, let the RMB internationalization becomes the result of market choices.