晚稻黄矮病发生趋势预测的初步研究

A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON TTREND FORECAST OF OCCURENCE OF RICE YELLOW STUNT VIRUS(RYSV)IN LATE RICE FIELD

晚稻黄矮病的发生程度与黑尾叶蝉的种群密度有着紧密的关系。本文将影响黑尾叶蝉种群数量的主要气象因素作为预测晚稻黄矮病的预报要素,利用武汉市洪山区八年的历史资料进行分级统计预测,预测结果理想,历史符合率达87.5%。

The occurence level of RYSV in late rice field is closely related to the density of Common rice leafhopper(Nephotettix cincticeps(Uhler))population. The principal Climatic factors which influence the density of common rice leafhopper population were used as the factors for forecasting the occurence trends of RYSV in late rice land by statistics with grading method by using historical,data of eight years of the Hongshan District,Wuhan.The predictive result is good and the historical fitting rate is 87.5%.