我国手足口病时空分布特征及预测模型研究进展

Spatiotemporal Distribution Patterns and Predicting Modeling Researches of Hand,Foot and Mouth Disease in China's Mainland

手足口病(HFMD)自2008年被我国纳入法定丙类传染病。国家卫生和计划生育委员会报告显示,截至2015年,全国累计发病11 762 589例,死亡3361例,年均发病率约为117/10万,居丙类传染病报告发病数之首。目前,HFMD的人群、时间和空间分布特征研究相对比较透彻,可以从全国水平描述发病人群及病原学流行病学特征。由于HFMD具有明显的时-空聚集性,因此,气象因素与疫情的相关关系以及由此为基础的疫情预测成为空间流行病学领域的研究热点。本文综述了我国HFMD人群及病原学时空分布流行特征、气象因素对时空分布的影响以及国内外预测模型的研究与应用现状,并在模型选择及纳入变量领域提出了新观点,以期为我国HFMD疫情的精准预测及疫情防控提供参考。

Hand foot and mouth disease （HFMD） has been listed in China as class C notifiable disease since 2008. Ac- cording to National Health and Family Planning Commission, 11 762 589 cases of HFMD were reported in China till the end of 2015, in which 3361 cases were fatal. Meanwhile, the incidence ranked 1 st among the class C notifiable disease with 117 cases per 100 000 population. The etiologic and epidemiologic characteristics of HFMD have been described well in national level and the features in demography and space-time distribution are relatively clear. HFMD has obvious space-time aggregation, as a result, the prediction on HFMD become a botspot in the field of spatial epidemiology research, based on the correlation between meteoro- logical factors and the HFMD outbreak. The researches and application status on demography, etiologic spatiotemporal distribution characteristics ,the influence of meteorological factors on the space-time distribution and the prediction model were reviewed in this study. Some new ideas about model selection and variable selection were embodied in this review, for providing the reference on accurate prediction and prevention and control of HFMD in China.