城市新移民社会心理适应的突变仿真研究

Simulation on Psychosocial Adaption of Urban New Migrants Based on Catastrophe Theory

在异质性移民心态恢复和适应行为转化分析的基础上,构建了城市新移民心理行为的双系统决策模型,并通过设计特定的人工社会环境,结合随机突变理论对新移民的心理适应机制进行模拟研究。结果表明,持续承压时间和政策制度会导致新移民心理适应过程的波动,但前者的影响更为显著。在适应心理到适应行为的转化中,新移民自身的态度倾向和心理认知水平是至关重要的,外界环境则影响该过程的持续时间及程度。政府要根据移民社会心理排斥的预警区和控制路径制定帮扶措施,一旦新移民选择抗拒逃离,则要付出更高的政策成本才能让该群体重新融入。

Based on the mental recovery and adaptive behavior translation of the new urban migrants, a two system decision-making model for psychological adaption was built. The simulation research of psychosocial adaption process was studied through the stochastic catastrophe theory and the specific artificial social environment. Simulation experiments indicate that the sustained pressure-bearing suffers from outside situation and the policy system result in the fluctuation of migrants＇ psychosocial adaption with the former more significant. In the translation of adaptive psychology to adaptive behavior, the attitude orientation and psychological cognition of migrants are critical. The duration or degree of the adaptive process is influenced by outside pressure. The government must work out support measures according to the alerting area and control paths of psychological repellence. Once the opt-out of the cities are chosen by the urban new migrants, the extra policy costs have to be paid by the government to achieve the objective of migrants＇ reintegration.