交通预测信息对路网流量演化稳定性影响分析

Analysis on Effect of Traffic Predictive Information on Road Network Traffic Volume Evolution Stability

在逐日动态演化模型框架下,引入了ATIS的一致性交通预测信息,以研究其对个体出行者的路径选择行为作用以及对整体路网交通流动态演化过程的影响。按照对ATIS交通预测信息的使用与否,将路网中的所有出行者划分为两类,在此基础上,构建了一个逐日交通流演化模型,模拟路网中两类出行者的路径选择动态调整过程。对演化模型的不动点及其存在性、唯一性等理论特性进行了研究。同时,通过对模型稳定性条件的分析,证明了一致性交通预测信息增强了路网交通流演化的渐进稳定性。数值试验结果表明:出行者接收交通预测信息时受到的误差影响越小,路网交通流演化过程越容易趋于稳定。研究结果将有助于智能交通系统的优化设计。

The consistent traffic predictive information, which may be provided by ATIS, is introduced into a day-to-day dynamic evolution model framework, to examine its influence on both individual traveler＇s route choice behavior and road network traffic dynamic evolution at an aggregate level. The traveler are divided into 2 types according to their access to ATIS traffic predictive information, on this basis, a day-to-day traffic flow evolution model is established to simulate the dynamic route choice adjustments conducted by the 2 driver types. Several theoretical properties of the proposed evolution model, including its fixed point existence, existence and uniqueness, are investigated, and the model stability condition is further analyzed to confirm that the consistent traffic predictive information enhanced the asymptotic stability of road network traffic flow evolution process. In addition, a numerical experiment shows that the smaller the receive error of the traffic information, the stronger stability the traffic flow evolution. Our study may benefit the optimal design of the ITS.