考虑运输方式间影响关系的公路客运交通需求预测

Highway Passenger Trasport Demand Forecasting Considering Relationship among Transport Modes

为了准确预测公路客运交通需求,保证客运量的预测精度,需要全面考虑运输方式间关系,甄选影响因素(人口、国内生产总值、公路里程、高速铁路、航空设施可达性)。依据全国31个省市15 a相关数据收集,按照虚拟变量形式,即有无高速铁路和航空设施可达性强弱划分为4种情况,获得了考虑铁路、航空影响的公路客运交通需求预测模型。并运用预测结果与现实数据之间的误差分析证明了虚拟变量模型构建的正确性。结果说明:在高速铁路建设与否和航空设施可达性不同的情况下,公路客运交通需求具有差异,表明公路、铁路、航空间存在竞合关系。获得了影响因素与客运需求间弹性系数,为可持续发展的客运交通系统构建提供参考。

In order to accurately predict highway passenger transport demand and guarantee passenger traffic prediction accuracy, it is necessary to considerate the relationships among transport modes. The influencing factors, such as population, gross domestic product, highway kilometers, high-speed railway and aviation facilities accessibility, are selected. Using the collected data of 31 cities and provinces of China for the years of 2000--2014, and based on the dummy variables, the states of high-speed railway construction and aviation facilities accessibility are divided into 4 conditions, the highway passenger transport demand forecasting model considering the affects of rail and air transport is obtained. The error analysis between forecasting result and real data is used to verify the correctness of the dummy variable model formation. The result shows that there exist travel demand differences under the conditions of with/without high-speed railway construction and different aviation facilities accessibility, which explained the co-opetition relationships among road, rail and air transport. The elasticity coefficients among travel demand and influencing factors is obtained. The result provided a reference to sustainable development of passenger transport system.