对“经济转型期”的界定:基于日本与“亚洲四小龙”的经验分析

Identification of Economic Transformation: Empirical Analysis Based on Japan and the “Four Asian Tigers”

从历史经验来看,经济运行特征的变化多呈现阶梯状。同时,从一个阶段到另一个阶段的变化并非一夜之间就完成了,往往需要一段时间,这些不同阶段的过渡期被称为"经济转型期"。以日本和"亚洲四小龙"为研究对象,分别从经济增速、人均收入水平和经济结构3个角度对这5个经济体的转型加以界定。通过对比研究发现:第一,经济转型往往都开始于危机——经济运行中深层次的、结构性的变化和问题多是在危机时期被诱发并集中表现出来的。第二,根据经济增长速度对转型期的界定更符合实际情况——经济体制、运行模式、资源配置机制、市场结构、产业结构、区域结构等的改变,最终都会体现在经济增长速度上。

According to the history, economic development always exhibits ladder-like features. And it always takes a period of time to complete the change from one stage to another, but not overnight. The interim periods between stages are referred to as ＂ economic transformation＂ Focusing the development experience of Japan and the ＂ Four Asian Tigers＂, this paper tries to identify the economic transformation of these five economies from three perspectives, including the economic growth rate, the income per capita and the economic structure. Main findings include： firstly, economic transformation typically follows some crisis-the underlying structural changes and problems are always triggered at the time of a crisis; secondly, comparison of the three perspectives indicates that the identification of economic transformation based on the economic growth rate is the most practical-changes in the economic institution, the economic mode, the resource allocation mechanism, the market structure, the industrial structure and the regional structure, are all reflected by changes in the economic growth.