石化仪表设备失效率的评估

Assessment on Failure Rate of Petrochemical Instrument Equipment

可靠性数据在仪表设备全寿命周期管理领域有广泛应用。针对目前国内石化装置仪表设备失效数据积累少,采用简单的统计分析方法无法准确获取可靠性数据的问题,探索建立适合国内仪表管理现状的可靠性数据分析方法。首先给出了较为全面的数据收集和处理流程。其次,建议"因地制宜"的采用不同的可靠性评估方法。针对有现场失效数据的情况,结合OREDA数据库和国内现场失效数据,使用贝叶斯方法 ;对于无现场失效数据的情况,结合OREDA相关失效数据,采用OREDA数据库中的相关评估方法。通过以上方法 ,能够实现仪表设备平均失效率和失效率置信区间的动态评估。最后结合实例验证方法的可行性。

Reliability data is widely adopted in the field of instrument equipment life-cycle management. In the current, because of accumulating very few failure data, accurate data reliability is unable to obtain by simple statistical method. For make up the gap, explore the establishment of analysis method of reliability data are needed for the current domestic instrument equipment management. Firstly, a comprehensive procedure of data collection and processing is established. Secondly, based on different situation of failure data, different methods of reliability assessment is used. In the case of existing failure data, Bayesian method is recommended by combining with the failure data of the OREDA database and the recorded field data. In the case of no field failure data, correlative assessment methods of no failure data in OREDA is suggested. By the method, the corresponding average failure rate and the confidence interval of failure rate in accord with each failure mode are assessed dynamically. Finally, the feasibility of the method is verified by an example.