“振兴东北老工业基地”有利于产值还是利润?——来自中国工业企业数据的证据

Does the“ Revitalization of the Old Industrial Base in Northeast of China ”Benefit the Firm's Output Value or its Profit? Evidence from the Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database

本文立足1999~2007年中国工业企业数据对"振兴东北"战略进行评估。实证结果表明该战略有利于企业产值扩张,但并不利于利润提高。在此基础上,本文讨论了"振兴东北"战略对企业的影响机制。实证研究证明该战略显著的降低了企业的税收与负债,促进了资本深化,增加了中间品投入。本文进一步发现企业税收下降刺激了产值的增加但不利于利润提高,负债下降与资本深化对于产值的正影响显著大于利润;中间品投入的增加对利润的负影响显著大于产值。本文认为"振兴东北"战略使企业陷入"经营困难—政府‘输血’—企业进一步扩张—利润下降—经营困难"的怪圈。从分行业的角度,本文发现"振兴东北"战略对于装备制造业企业产值的正影响显著大于整体水平,但对利润的影响为负;而该战略在促进高耗能企业产值提高的同时,却未能提高利润。实证研究还表明,该战略对资源型企业的产值与利润均未产生显著的正影响。

Using panel data from Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database from 1999 to 2007, this paper investigates the effect of" Revitalization of the Old Industrial Base in Northeast of China ". Empirical result indicates that this regional development policy has a positive effect on firm 's product output, while has a negative effect on firm 's profit. Further, this paper analysis the channels and mechanisms that the effect of reginal policy on firms. The empirical result indicates that the policy reduces firms 'taxes,which stimulates the output value while has negative effect on firms 'profit; the policy reduces firms 'liabilities and accelerated firms 'capital deepening, both of which increase firms 'output value and profit but raised more output value than that of profit; the policy increased firms 'material input, which decreases both the output value and profit of firms ', but had more effect on profit than on that of output value. As a result, the regional policy of" Revitalization of the Old Industrial Base in Northeast of China "boost firms 'production scale but failed to raise firms 'profit. This paper suggests that the policy leads a vicious circle that because of poor operating then attract more support from government and induced more enlarge in scale and decline in profit and as a result the firm repeated the state of poor operating. In addition, the effect varies in different industries. The regional development policy increases the output value of the firms of equipment manufacturing industry more than that of others,and has negative effect on firms 'profit. And the policy has raised the output value of energy-intensive industry significantly but has no significant effect on its profit. It is also found that the policy has no significant effect on output value and profit of resources-based enterprises.